How to Think About Political Predictions on Regulated Markets — A Practical Guide
Whoa! This topic moves fast. Prediction markets are weirdly addictive. They feel like a sportsbook for policy, but with stakes that matter in different ways. My instinct said this would be simple to explain, but actually, wait—let me rephrase that: it’s simple to start, messy to master. Here’s the thing. Political-event contracts trade on probabilities,…